The Hidden Warning Signs in Your Numbers (And How to Spot Them Early)

A guide for Plumbing & Heating Business Owners – from Accounting Matters

Introduction – Busy Does NOT Mean Safe

At Accounting Matters, we work with plumbing and heating engineers every day.

We know the rhythm of the industry well:

  • The unpredictable call-outs
  • The seasonal swings
  • Material price rises
  • Increasing fuel costs
  • Long days on site

And because so many hours are spent working, the numbers behind the business rarely get the attention they deserve.

But here’s the truth we tell every engineer:

Problems rarely hit suddenly – they show up slowly in your numbers first.

Almost every financial crisis we’ve helped resolve began months earlier as a small warning sign hidden inside the accounts.

The key is spotting those signals early – before they turn into sleepless nights, HMRC penalties, or cash flow emergencies.

That’s what this blog is about.

Why Plumbing & Heating Businesses Miss Financial Warning Signs

There are four main reasons trade businesses overlook danger signs:

1. Work Comes First

Jobs, emergencies, subcontractor schedules and paperwork always take priority.

2. The bank balance feels like the indicator

But it hides future tax, VAT or CIS liabilities.

3. Year-end accounts arrive too late

You’re learning what happened rather than managing what’s happening.

4. Numbers aren’t explained in plain English

If your accountant isn’t proactive, warning signs can slip past unnoticed.

That’s why at Accounting Matters we push quarterly reporting, CIS reconciliation, cloud systems, and month-9 planning — because visibility prevents risk.

The Top Hidden Warning Signs in Plumbing & Heating Financials

Let’s walk through the most common warning signs we find when taking on a new plumbing and heating client — and how they appear long before the crisis hits.

Warning Sign #1

High Turnover but Low Bank Balance

This is extremely common.

You're busy, invoices look healthy, vans are constantly on the road — but the bank never grows.

What this means in practice:

  • Profit margins are shrinking
  • Expenses are rising faster than revenue
  • Cash flow timing issues are building
  • VAT + CIS deductions draining cash unnoticed

Left unchecked, even a profitable business can run out of cash.

Warning Sign #2

CIS Refunds Increasing Each Year

This sounds like a win — but repeated large refunds mean:

  • CIS deductions are excessive
  • Pricing isn’t reflecting the deduction impact
  • Subcontractor tax status not verified properly
  • Cash flow is tied up for months unnecessarily

You shouldn’t see CIS refunds as a bonus — they indicate preventable cash loss during the year.

Warning Sign #3

Late VAT or CIS Submissions

Delays are rarely admin errors. They usually signal:

  • Cash flow strain
  • Lack of system organisation
  • Poor tracking of subcontractor deductions
  • Reverse charge VAT confusion

When VAT/CIS deadlines start slipping, the business is under pressure.

Warning Sign #4

Material Costs Creeping Up Without Margin Adjustments

Merchant pricing increases regularly, especially for:

  • copper
  • fittings
  • valves
  • boilers
  • consumables

But many plumbing businesses don’t increase pricing proportionally.

What happens?

Margins erode silently.

Warning Sign #5

Rising Debtor Days

If customers take longer to pay:

  • more cash flow stress
  • increased borrowing
  • delayed supplier payments
  • VAT due before receiving payment

Most business failures happen not because they weren’t profitable — but because they ran out of cash waiting to get paid.

Warning Sign #6

Directors Taking Drawings Without Visibility

When directors withdraw based on “gut feel” rather than forecasting, trouble follows.

Symptoms include:

  • director loan accounts building
  • tax exposure increasing
  • personal debts rising

This is a slow-burning financial fuse many don’t realise is lit.

Warning Sign #7

Van/Equipment Finance Increasing Without Cash Buffer

Expanding capacity is great — but repayment schedules can quickly outpace cash flow if not forecast properly.

We see this in growing firms hitting £250k+ turnover or taking on more engineers.

Warning Sign #8

Reverse Charge VAT Being Applied Incorrectly

This leads to:

  • unpaid VAT obligations
  • accidental double-charging
  • distorted profit figures
  • HMRC assessments later

Reverse charge VAT + CIS interaction is one of the biggest risk areas for plumbing businesses we support.

Warning Sign #9

No Monthly or Quarterly Reporting

If the only time the books are reviewed is year-end, financial risks grow unnoticed for 6–18 months.

That’s far too long.

Where These Warning Signs Lead if Ignored

Every warning sign eventually becomes one of these:

❌ Overdrawn director loan
❌ Corporation tax shock
❌ Unable to pay VAT
❌ Profit turns negative
❌ HMRC penalties issued
❌ Business overdrafts max out
❌ Staff/subcontractors paid late
❌ Suppliers tighten credit terms

These problems feel sudden — but they never are.

We can trace every crisis back to earlier unspotted warning signs.

How to Spot Warning Signs Early – Tools That Work

Here’s how we help plumbing and heating businesses become financially proactive:

1. Quarterly Management Accounts

Real-time insight into margins, cash flow, VAT + CIS exposure.

2. CIS Reconciliation + VAT Reviews

Prevents deductions, penalties + reverse charge errors.

3. Month-9 Tax Planning

Predict tax bills early and plan cash accordingly.

4. Budget + Cash Flow Forecasting

See future pressure points before they hit.

5. Cloud Systems

Xero + Dext + SmartVault automate tracking so nothing gets missed.

6. Profit-per-job reporting

Shows which work types earn — and which drain cash.

These processes turn the business from reactive to controlled.

A Real Example: How One Hidden Warning Sign Nearly Sank a Heating Business

A client we onboarded last year looked completely healthy from the outside:

  • busy diary
  • strong turnover
  • team of engineers

But within their accounts we noticed higher CIS deductions and rising debtor days.

We raised it immediately.

Two months later, a major commercial client delayed payment and several subcontractors needed paying.

Without proactive CIS and cash flow planning, the company would have defaulted on obligations.

Because we spotted the warning signs early, we:

  • renegotiated payment terms
  • leveraged CIS reclaim timing
  • revised invoicing schedule
  • forecast cash correctly

The owner later told us:

“If you hadn’t flagged those warning signs, I wouldn’t have seen them until it was too late.”

And that’s exactly why accountants must be proactive.

Why Accounting Matters Helps Spot These Warning Signs Early

We specialise in helping plumbing and heating businesses — meaning we know:

  • typical cost structures
  • seasonal pressures
  • CIS/VAT compliance traps
  • subcontractor risks
  • the financial profile of growing trades

That means we recognise industry-specific warning signs sooner, including:

  • winter VAT/CIS spikes
  • spring cash flow dips
  • service contract margin slippage
  • material inflation impact
  • reverse charge invoicing errors

General accountants simply miss these signals because they don’t understand the trade context behind the numbers.

When Should You Worry?

If you’re experiencing ANY of the warning signs listed earlier — now is the time to act.

Small problems today become big ones fast when:

  • turnover increases
  • subcontracting expands
  • payroll grows
  • tax exposure grows
  • VAT liabilities compound

The earlier you address it, the easier, cheaper, and safer it is.

Final Thoughts – Numbers Tell the Truth (If You Know Where to Look)

Your plumbing or heating business speaks long before it shouts.

The warning signs are there — in the CIS returns, in VAT timing, in late debtors, in shrinking margins, and in rising fuel/material spend.

The most successful trade businesses don’t wait for year-end to find out what went wrong.

They spot warning signs early — and act early.

That’s what Accounting Matters helps trade businesses do every single day.

If You're Ready to Spot Warning Signs Early Instead of After the Damage…

We’d love to support you.

📞 01773 747990
📧 welcome@accountingmatters.co.uk
🌍 www.accountingmatters.co.uk

At Accounting Matters, we don’t just file accounts.

We monitor, support, guide, and protect growing plumbing and heating businesses — before the danger signs turn into costly consequences.

Because knowing your numbers early isn’t just smart business.

It’s survival — and success.

Our Certification

We are Certified Platinum Xero Partners and Platinum Quickbooks Partners

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